(no subject)

[yakov_a_jerkov]

Trump Approves Strikes on Iran, but Then Abruptly Pulls Back

President Trump approved military strikes against Iran in retaliation for downing an American surveillance drone, but pulled back from launching them on Thursday night after a day of escalating tensions.

As late as 7 p.m., military and diplomatic officials were expecting a strike, after intense discussions and debate at the White House among the president’s top national security officials and congressional leaders, according to multiple senior administration officials involved in or briefed on the deliberations.

Officials said the president had initially approved attacks on a handful of Iranian targets, like radar and missile batteries.

The operation was underway in its early stages when it was called off, a senior administration official said. Planes were in the air and ships were in position, but no missiles had been fired when word came to stand down, the official said.

[...]

It was not clear whether Mr. Trump simply changed his mind on the strikes or whether the administration altered course because of logistics or strategy. It was also not clear whether the attacks might still go forward.

Asked about the plans for a strike and the decision to hold back, the White House declined to comment, as did Pentagon officials. No government officials asked The New York Times to withhold the article.

WaPo подтверждает информацию NYT.

Comments

[timelets.livejournal.com]

This is a typical story with the Orange Swan's decision-making process: cause a crisis with potentially dire consequences, get everybody afraid of a worst-case outcome, choose a not-so-horrible option, and claim success in "a lot better than the alternative."

[misha-b.livejournal.com]

In general this is true. But he has been quite reluctant to get involved in serious confrontations, you have to give him that. People around him, like Bolton, are a different story though.

[timelets.livejournal.com]

Yeah, he's quite reluctant to confront Saudi Arabia, North Korea and China on their human rights abuses. I'll give him that. The good news for us is that he's also afraid of American military casualties.

[misha-b.livejournal.com]

That's why I was surprised that he suddenly started caring about the body count.

[yakov-a-jerkov.livejournal.com]

Probably because he did not.

[misha-b.livejournal.com]

That it is entirely possible. But who knows, he is a human and perhaps nothing human is alien to him.

[yakov-a-jerkov.livejournal.com]

Sure it is possible. What seems unlikely, to say the least, is the story that Trump told us about him finding out that about 150 people were going to die 10 minutes before the strike and cancelling the operation because of that.

What seems likely is Trump making up a story to put a positive spin on this fuck-up.

[misha-b.livejournal.com]

Personally I am relieved that there is no war (yet). Trump does not seem to be a hawk although he is surrounded by hawks.

[saccovanzetti.livejournal.com]

And Global Hawks