Очередные новости о расследовании и очередная теория заговора

В NYT в среду вышла большая статья -- "Code Name Crossfire Hurricane: The Secret Origins of the Trump Investigation" -- добавляющая информации к тому, что мы знали о начале расследования связей кампании Трампа и России.

Как сообщалось ранее, ФБР начало расследование кампании Трампа после того, как стало известно о разговоре Пападопулоса с австралийским дипломатом, в котором Пападопулос упомянул о том, что у России есть компрометирующие Клинтон e-mail'ы, о чем на тот момент не было публично известно.

Новой информацией является тот факт, что ФБР отправило своих агентов побеседовать с этим дипломатом.

Within hours of opening an investigation into the Trump campaign’s ties to Russia in the summer of 2016, the F.B.I. dispatched a pair of agents to London on a mission so secretive that all but a handful of officials were kept in the dark.

Their assignment, which has not been previously reported, was to meet the Australian ambassador, who had evidence that one of Donald J. Trump’s advisers knew in advance about Russian election meddling. After tense deliberations between Washington and Canberra, top Australian officials broke with diplomatic protocol and allowed the ambassador, Alexander Downer, to sit for an F.B.I. interview to describe his meeting with the campaign adviser, George Papadopoulos.

The agents summarized their highly unusual interview and sent word to Washington on Aug. 2, 2016, two days after the investigation was opened. Their report helped provide the foundation for a case that, a year ago Thursday, became the special counsel investigation. But at the time, a small group of F.B.I. officials knew it by its code name: Crossfire Hurricane.

Нам также было известно, что, в отличие от расследования "her e-mails", ФБР держало в секрете расследование кампании Трампа. Статья NYT сообщает насколько серьезно ФБР отнеслось к секретности в этом случае.

Not only did agents in that case fall back to their typical policy of silence, but interviews with a dozen current and former government officials and a review of documents show that the F.B.I. was even more circumspect in that case than has been previously known. Many of the officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the investigation publicly.

Agents considered, then rejected, interviewing key Trump associates, which might have sped up the investigation but risked revealing the existence of the case. Top officials quickly became convinced that they would not solve the case before Election Day, which made them only more hesitant to act. When agents did take bold investigative steps, like interviewing the ambassador, they were shrouded in secrecy.

Fearful of leaks, they kept details from political appointees across the street at the Justice Department. Peter Strzok, a senior F.B.I. agent, explained in a text that Justice Department officials would find it too “tasty” to resist sharing. “I’m not worried about our side,” he wrote.

Only about five Justice Department officials knew the full scope of the case, officials said, not the dozen or more who might normally be briefed on a major national security case.

Насколько эта секретность помогла Трампу очевидно:

The facts, had they surfaced, might have devastated the Trump campaign: Mr. Trump’s future national security adviser was under investigation, as was his campaign chairman. One adviser appeared to have Russian intelligence contacts. Another was suspected of being a Russian agent himself.

Обо всем этом мы узнали уже после того, как Трамп стал президентом.

Более того, ФБР пошло еще дальше. Вот эта знаменитая статья в том же NYT -- "Investigating Donald Trump, F.B.I. Sees No Clear Link to Russia" -- вышла 31 октября, 2016 года, и была основана на информации от ФБР.

Информация, которая до сих пор тоже, по-моему, не была известна. Кристофер Стил передал ФБР информацию о связях кампании Трампа с России в июле 2016 года. Но люди, занимавшиеся расследованием "Crossfire Hurricane" получили эту информацию только в середине сентября.

И последняя новая информация из статьи -- ФБР задействовало своего информатора, американского профессора в Англии, для получения информации о кампании Трампа. Этот информатор -- уже фактически публично известно, кто он -- поговорил с Пападопулосом, Пейджем и Кловисом, но, вроде, ничего ценного для расследования не узнал.

Теперь мы плавно переходим к очередной теории заговора. Информация об информаторе послужила поводом для, по-моему, уже четырех твитов Трампа о том, что "Obama FBI “SPIED ON THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN WITH AN EMBEDDED INFORMANT" и, как обычно, "this is bigger than Watergate!"

Детали этой теории заговора формулирует, конечно, не Трампа, а другие люди -- editorial board WSJ, например. Но и они делают это больше намеками, а не прямо. Вот попытка разобрать эту теорию -- "Trump’s New Russia Scandal Theory: The FBI Set Him Up. There’s One Small Flaw."

Strassel’s [WSJ editorial board] latest missive brings into view the latest working theory. It holds that James Comey planted a spy in the Trump campaign, in order to set in motion an investigation that would be used to smear Trump as a Russian tool, and thereby to hand the election to Hillary Clinton. This is the theory Trump is referring to when he rages about a plot that is “worse than Watergate.” [...]

Put aside for a moment whether it is actually scandalous for the FBI to use an informant to uncover evidence of criminal conduct. The argument is that the clear purpose of this maneuver was to influence the 2016 election.

Это, действительно, популярная у сторонников не только Трампа, но у республиканцев вообще теория. Популярная вопреки своей очевидной абсурдности.

Except there’s one tiny flaw in this theory: They never sprang the October surprise. The FBI kept a tight lid on the investigation — so tight, in fact, they floated a misleading story in the New York Times conveying the false impression that they saw no ties to Russia. [...] The farthest Obama went was to ask leaders of both parties to join in a bipartisan statement warning Russia not to interfere with the election — and when Mitch McConnell refused, they did nothing. When voting took place in November 2016, as far as the public was concerned, Clinton had been under FBI investigation and Trump had not.

И немного о птичках. Сфотографировал сегодня sandhill cranes. Я их фотографировал и раньше, но таких маленьких детенышей я раньше не видел.

Erik Prince и другие

Сегодняшняя статья в NYT.

Trump Jr. and Other Aides Met With Gulf Emissary Offering Help to Win Election

Three months before the 2016 election, a small group gathered at Trump Tower to meet with Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son. One was an Israeli specialist in social media manipulation. Another was an emissary for two wealthy Arab princes. The third was a Republican donor with a controversial past in the Middle East as a private security contractor.

The meeting was convened primarily to offer help to the Trump team, and it forged relationships between the men and Trump insiders that would develop over the coming months — past the election and well into President Trump’s first year in office, according to several people with knowledge of their encounters.

Erik Prince, the private security contractor and the former head of Blackwater, arranged the meeting, which took place on Aug. 3, 2016. The emissary, George Nader, told Donald Trump Jr. that the princes who led Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were eager to help his father win election as president. The social media specialist, Joel Zamel, extolled his company’s ability to give an edge to a political campaign; by that time, the firm had already drawn up a multimillion-dollar proposal for a social media manipulation effort to help elect Mr. Trump.

О том, что кампания Трампа могла получать помощь и других стран, кроме России, до сих пор не сообщалось:

The meetings, which have not been reported previously, are the first indication that countries other than Russia may have offered assistance to the Trump campaign in the months before the presidential election. The interactions are a focus of the investigation by Robert S. Mueller III, the special counsel, who was originally tasked with examining possible Trump campaign coordination with Russia in the election.

О том, что Nader сотрудничает с Мюллером мы уже знали какое-то время, а о том, что люди Мюллера проводили интервью со свидетелями в Израиле -- нет.

Mr. Nader is cooperating with the inquiry, and investigators have questioned numerous witnesses in Washington, New York, Atlanta, Tel Aviv and elsewhere about what foreign help may have been pledged or accepted, and about whether any such assistance was coordinated with Russia, according to witnesses and others with knowledge of the interviews.

В том, что информация NYT верна, и встреча, действительно, имела место, можно, видимо, не сомневаться. А вот принимать на веру, что Джуниор "was not interested", и на этом все и закончилось, вряд ли стоит.

A lawyer for Donald Trump Jr., Alan Futerfas, said in a statement that “prior to the 2016 election, Donald Trump Jr. recalls a meeting with Erik Prince, George Nader and another individual who may be Joel Zamel. They pitched Mr. Trump Jr. on a social media platform or marketing strategy. He was not interested and that was the end of it.”

Причины, по которым "лидеры" Саудовской Аравии и Эмиратов были заинтересованы в победе Трампа:

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan of Abu Dhabi, the de facto ruler of the United Arab Emirates, and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia, the king’s main adviser, had long opposed many of the Obama administration’s policies toward the Middle East. They resented President Barack Obama’s agreement with Iran over its nuclear program, his statements of support for the Arab Spring uprisings and his hands-off approach to the Syrian civil war.

Вспомним, что Трамп, вопреки позиции Госдепартамента, поддержал Саудовскую Аравию и Эмираты в конфликте с Катаром.

Erik Prince, если кто не помнит, кроме того, что бывший глава Blackwater, является братом Betsy DeVos, которую Трамп, непонятно за какие заслуги, сделал министром образования.

Также Erik Prince -- участник достаточно загадочной встречи на Сейшелах -- "Blackwater founder held secret Seychelles meeting to establish Trump-Putin back channel".

Новая информация, как минимум противоречит тому, что Erik Prince говорил во время своих показаний в Конгрессе.

With Blockbuster NYT report ("Trump Jr. and Other Aides Met With Gulf Emissary Offering Help to Win Election")...

1. Meeting was arranged and attended by Erik Prince.

2. Compare this to what Prince told Congress and looks a lot like perjury.

Prince's testimony:
<thread>1/ pic.twitter.com/IIKOknUpxk

— Ryan Goodman (@rgoodlaw) May 19, 2018

Сложно понять, каким образом ответ Принса не является perjury, но я уверен, что трамписты это как-то объяснят.

И снова о птичках. Вот совенка сегодня сфотографировал.